Given low levels of crop production and the large-scale loss of livestock and labor opportunities, many households are heavily reliant on markets but unable to earn sufficient income and facing high prices. Improvement in access has been observed since April, but economic activity remains extremely limited within Tigray, is driving high food prices, upwards of 135 percent higher than last year, while fuel prices are 15 times higher than pre-conflict levels.
Humanitarian and commercial access to Tigray and adjacent areas of Afar and Amhara remains challenging. In northern Ethiopia, localized incidents of conflict were reported in early 2022, and occasionally since the humanitarian truce in April. With the potential for extreme outcomes and associated high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality in multiple areas of the country, large-scale and sustained food assistance, as well as unfettered humanitarian access, is needed urgently to save lives. The elevated likelihood that the October to December *deyr/hageya *season will be below average is setting the stage for an unprecedented five-season drought, deepening the already high levels of concern. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely with increasing concern that more extreme food insecurity could emerge in mid- to late-2022. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the extremely poor performance of the March to May gu/genna rainfall marks the fourth-consecutive poor season and has led to large-scale livestock deaths and an abysmal outlook for crop production. In northern Ethiopia, where large-scale conflict significantly damaged livelihoods and a de facto humanitarian and commercial blockade persists, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely, at a minimum, and roughly two-thirds of the population in need resides. The population in need of humanitarian food assistance in Ethiopia has reached record levels in 2022 - 10 to 15 million people - driven by ongoing insecurity and climate shocks that are likely to result in continued high needs into 2023.
Increasing hunger-related mortality likely due to historic drought and unresolved conflict
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